VanEck Semiconductor ETF

SMH options: expected move, IV and max pain

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) traded near $526.53 at the last snapshot. Option prices for the 20 Nov monthly expiry, which is 21 days away, imply a move of about $45.10 either way (8.57%), a range of $481.43 to $571.63.

Last price: $526.53
Expected move: ±$45.10; 8.57% · to 20 Nov
ATM IV: 45.0%; 20 Nov expiry
Data as of: 30 Oct 2026, 4:10 pm ET

Source: ThetaData

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What stands out in the SMH data

30-day IV is 41.5%, the 64th percentile of the last 252 sessions, with an IV rank of 45.
The 20 Nov chain lists 169 strikes and 431,661 contracts of open interest, the most of any listed expiry.

Expected move by expiry

What the options market is pricing for SMH at each of the expiries below.

SMH expected move, ATM implied volatility and price range by expiry
Expiry	Time left	ATM IV	Expected move	Price range
2 Nov 2026Nearest	Time left3 days	ATM IV37.5%	Expected move±$13.60 (2.58%)	Price range$512.93 to $540.13
6 Nov 2026Weekly	Time left7 days	ATM IV49.9%	Expected move±$27.48 (5.22%)	Price range$499.06 to $554.01
20 Nov 2026Monthly	Time left21 days	ATM IV45.0%	Expected move±$45.10 (8.57%)	Price range$481.43 to $571.63
4 Dec 2026Closest to 30 days	Time left35 days	ATM IV40.8%	Expected move±$53.80 (10.22%)	Price range$472.73 to $580.33
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 days	Time left49 days	ATM IV40.0%	Expected move±$62.98 (11.96%)	Price range$463.56 to $589.51

Expected move is the price of the at-the-money straddle for the expiry, using midpoint prices (the average of bid and ask, or the last trade when a side has no quote). It is the same figure the Options Matrix shows. The range is the last price plus and minus that move.

The market prices 2.58% for the 2 Nov expiry and 11.96% for the 18 Dec expiry.

Implied volatility and term structure

How much volatility option prices carry, and how it changes from one expiry to the next.

Monthly ATM IV

45.0%

20 Nov 2026, 21 days

Nearest ATM IV

37.5%

2 Nov 2026, 3 days

Longest ATM IV

40.0%

18 Dec 2026, 49 days

30-day IV

41.5%

Stored reading, 30 Oct 2026

IV rank

0 is the low, 100 the high, over 252 sessions

IV percentile

64%

Share of the last 252 sessions at or below this reading

ATM implied volatility by expiry for SMH. Points are evenly spaced rather than to time scale, and each point’s full reading appears above the chart when you hover or tap it.

Among expiries a week or more away, at-the-money IV runs from 49.9% at 6 Nov to 40.0% at 18 Dec. The curve slopes down: nearer expiries carry more annualised volatility than later ones.

Put wall, call wall and max pain

Where open interest and gamma exposure concentrate for the next two monthly expiries.

SMH gamma and open-interest put walls, call walls and max pain by expiry
Expiry	Gamma put wall	Open-interest put wall	Gamma call wall	Open-interest call wall	Max pain
20 Nov 2026Monthly	Gamma put wall$5250.3% below spot	Open-interest put wall$63019.7% above spot	Gamma call wall$62518.7% above spot	Open-interest call wall$65023.4% above spot	Max pain$58511.1% above spot
The open-interest put wall at $630 sits above the last price, so those puts are in the money.
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 days	Gamma put wall$5005.0% below spot	Open-interest put wall$5005.0% below spot	Gamma call wall$65023.4% above spot	Open-interest call wall$60014.0% above spot	Max pain$5504.5% above spot

For the 20 Nov expiry, gamma and open interest disagree on both walls: open interest places both further from the last price than gamma does.

SMH contract terms

Exercise style: American style: the holder can exercise at any time up to expiry.
Settlement: Physical settlement: exercise and assignment deliver or take 100 ETF shares per contract.
Last trading day: Trading ends at the close on the expiry date shown in each row. Monthly expiries fall on the third Friday, or the Thursday before when Friday is a market holiday.
Earnings: Not applicable. SMH is a fund and does not report earnings.

Exercise vs assignment

How to read these numbers

Expected move: The at-the-money straddle price at midpoint prices: the size of move the market charges for in either direction, not a forecast.Breakevens and max loss
ATM implied volatility: Annualised volatility implied by at-the-money prices for one expiry; across expiries it forms the term structure.Implied volatility explained
IV rank and percentile: Rank places 30-day IV between its lowest and highest stored reading; percentile is the share of stored sessions at or below the current reading.
Gamma and open-interest walls: Gamma walls are the strikes with the most positive (call) and most negative (put) net gamma exposure; open-interest walls are the strikes with the most open calls and puts. A wall can sit on either side of the last price.Put wall vs max pain
Max pain: The strike where option holders would collect the least at expiry, given open interest. It does not predict the settlement price.Open interest vs volume

Model SMH trades with these numbers

The Visualizer reprices SMH live when you open it, then draws the expected move and probability range beside your payoff chart. The figures here are a snapshot from the time shown above, so they can differ slightly from the live screens.

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Educational and informational only, not financial advice. Option figures are calculated from ThetaData quotes and open interest at the time shown. 30-day IV, IV rank and IV percentile come from stored daily readings, and earnings dates come from an earnings calendar. The figures describe what option prices imply, not what will happen. You make every trading decision. Options trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.