Apple · stock

AAPL options: expected move, IV and max pain

Apple (AAPL) traded near $345.10 at the last snapshot. Option prices for the 20 Nov monthly expiry, which is 21 days away, imply a move of about $20.63 either way (5.98%), a range of $324.48 to $365.73.

Last price: $345.10
Expected move: ±$20.63; 5.98% · to 20 Nov
ATM IV: 30.6%; 20 Nov expiry
Data as of: 30 Oct 2026, 3:59 pm ET

Source: ThetaData

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What stands out in the AAPL data

30-day IV is 28.8%, the 87th percentile of the last 252 sessions, with an IV rank of 76.
For the 20 Nov monthly expiry, the straddle implies ±5.98% and the one standard deviation range spans about ±7.35%, about 1.2 times the straddle.
The 20 Nov chain lists 94 strikes and 624,537 contracts of open interest.
Open interest is largest at the 18 Dec expiry, at 762,758 contracts.

Expected move by expiry

What the options market is pricing for AAPL at each of the expiries below.

AAPL expected move, ATM implied volatility and price range by expiry
Expiry	Time left	ATM IV	Expected move	Price range
4 Nov 2026NearestIncludes earnings (2 Nov)	Time left5 days	ATM IV43.4%	Expected move±$14.90 (4.32%)	Price range$330.20 to $360.00
6 Nov 2026WeeklyIncludes earnings (2 Nov)	Time left7 days	ATM IV42.6%	Expected move±$16.35 (4.74%)	Price range$328.75 to $361.45
20 Nov 2026MonthlyIncludes earnings (2 Nov)	Time left21 days	ATM IV30.6%	Expected move±$20.63 (5.98%)	Price range$324.48 to $365.73
4 Dec 2026Closest to 30 daysIncludes earnings (2 Nov)	Time left35 days	ATM IV28.0%	Expected move±$23.38 (6.77%)	Price range$321.73 to $368.48
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 daysIncludes earnings (2 Nov)	Time left49 days	ATM IV28.7%	Expected move±$27.65 (8.01%)	Price range$317.45 to $372.75

Expected move is the price of the at-the-money straddle for the expiry, using midpoint prices (the average of bid and ask, or the last trade when a side has no quote). It is the same figure the Options Matrix shows. The range is the last price plus and minus that move.

The market prices 4.32% for the 4 Nov expiry and 8.01% for the 18 Dec expiry.

For the 20 Nov monthly expiry, the Visualizer's one standard deviation range, which covers about 68% of modelled outcomes, runs from $320.19 to $370.92. It is wider than the straddle range because an at-the-money straddle prices roughly 0.8 of one standard deviation.

The 4 Nov, 6 Nov, 20 Nov, 4 Dec and 18 Dec expiries include Apple's 2 Nov report, so their expected moves price that event.

Implied volatility and term structure

How much volatility option prices carry, and how it changes from one expiry to the next.

Monthly ATM IV

30.6%

20 Nov 2026, 21 days

Nearest ATM IV

43.4%

4 Nov 2026, 5 days

Longest ATM IV

28.7%

18 Dec 2026, 49 days

30-day IV

28.8%

Stored reading, 30 Oct 2026

IV rank

0 is the low, 100 the high, over 252 sessions

IV percentile

87%

Share of the last 252 sessions at or below this reading

ATM implied volatility by expiry for AAPL. Points are evenly spaced rather than to time scale, and each point’s full reading appears above the chart when you hover or tap it.

Among expiries a week or more away, at-the-money IV runs from 42.6% at 6 Nov to 28.7% at 18 Dec. The curve slopes down: nearer expiries carry more annualised volatility than later ones.

All 5 expiries include Apple's 2 Nov report, so these IVs include an earnings premium.

Put wall, call wall and max pain

Where open interest and gamma exposure concentrate for the next two monthly expiries.

AAPL gamma and open-interest put walls, call walls and max pain by expiry
Expiry	Gamma put wall	Open-interest put wall	Gamma call wall	Open-interest call wall	Max pain
20 Nov 2026Monthly	Gamma put wall$3304.4% below spot	Open-interest put wall$3304.4% below spot	Gamma call wall$3604.3% above spot	Open-interest call wall$40015.9% above spot	Max pain$3255.8% below spot
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 days	Gamma put wall$3158.7% below spot	Open-interest put wall$3158.7% below spot	Gamma call wall$3604.3% above spot	Open-interest call wall$3604.3% above spot	Max pain$29514.5% below spot

For the 20 Nov expiry, gamma and open interest agree on the $330 put wall. On calls, open interest places the wall further from the last price than gamma does.

Next earnings date

2 Nov 2026

Apple is listed to report after the close on 2 Nov 2026. The date comes from an earnings calendar and can change. All 5 listed expiries include the report.

AAPL contract terms

Exercise style: American style: the holder can exercise at any time up to expiry.
Settlement: Physical settlement: exercise and assignment deliver or take 100 shares per contract.
Last trading day: Trading ends at the close on the expiry date shown in each row. Monthly expiries fall on the third Friday, or the Thursday before when Friday is a market holiday.

Exercise vs assignment

How to read these numbers

Expected move: The at-the-money straddle price at midpoint prices: the size of move the market charges for in either direction, not a forecast.Breakevens and max loss
ATM implied volatility: Annualised volatility implied by at-the-money prices for one expiry; across expiries it forms the term structure.Implied volatility explained
IV rank and percentile: Rank places 30-day IV between its lowest and highest stored reading; percentile is the share of stored sessions at or below the current reading.
Gamma and open-interest walls: Gamma walls are the strikes with the most positive (call) and most negative (put) net gamma exposure; open-interest walls are the strikes with the most open calls and puts. A wall can sit on either side of the last price.Put wall vs max pain
Max pain: The strike where option holders would collect the least at expiry, given open interest. It does not predict the settlement price.Open interest vs volume

Model AAPL trades with these numbers

The Visualizer reprices AAPL live when you open it, then draws the expected move and probability range beside your payoff chart. The figures here are a snapshot from the time shown above, so they can differ slightly from the live screens.

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Educational and informational only, not financial advice. Option figures are calculated from ThetaData quotes and open interest at the time shown. 30-day IV, IV rank and IV percentile come from stored daily readings, and earnings dates come from an earnings calendar. The figures describe what option prices imply, not what will happen. You make every trading decision. Options trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.