Microsoft · stock

MSFT options: expected move, IV and max pain

Microsoft (MSFT) traded near $522.99 at the last snapshot. Option prices for the 20 Nov monthly expiry, which is 21 days away, imply a move of about $29.13 either way (5.57%), a range of $493.87 to $552.12.

Last price: $522.99
Expected move: ±$29.13; 5.57% · to 20 Nov
ATM IV: Not available
Data as of: 30 Oct 2026, 4:00 pm ET

Source: ThetaData

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What stands out in the MSFT data

30-day IV is 27.9%, the 41st percentile of the last 252 sessions, with an IV rank of 32.
The 20 Nov chain lists 107 strikes and 486,035 contracts of open interest.
Open interest is largest at the 18 Dec expiry, at 824,789 contracts.

Expected move by expiry

What the options market is pricing for MSFT at each of the expiries below.

MSFT expected move, ATM implied volatility and price range by expiry
Expiry	Time left	ATM IV	Expected move	Price range
2 Nov 2026Nearest	Time left3 days	ATM IVNot available	Expected move±$8.30 (1.59%)	Price range$514.69 to $531.29
6 Nov 2026Weekly	Time left7 days	ATM IV29.8%	Expected move±$17.25 (3.30%)	Price range$505.74 to $540.24
20 Nov 2026Monthly	Time left21 days	ATM IVNot available	Expected move±$29.13 (5.57%)	Price range$493.87 to $552.12
4 Dec 2026Closest to 30 days	Time left35 days	ATM IVNot available	Expected move±$35.30 (6.75%)	Price range$487.69 to $558.29
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 days	Time left49 days	ATM IVNot available	Expected move±$41.63 (7.96%)	Price range$481.37 to $564.62

Expected move is the price of the at-the-money straddle for the expiry, using midpoint prices (the average of bid and ask, or the last trade when a side has no quote). It is the same figure the Options Matrix shows. The range is the last price plus and minus that move.

The market prices 1.59% for the 2 Nov expiry and 7.96% for the 18 Dec expiry.

Implied volatility and term structure

How much volatility option prices carry, and how it changes from one expiry to the next.

Headline ATM IV

29.8%

6 Nov 2026, 7 days

30-day IV

27.9%

Stored reading, 30 Oct 2026

IV rank

0 is the low, 100 the high, over 252 sessions

IV percentile

41%

Share of the last 252 sessions at or below this reading

ATM IV missing for some expiries

At-the-money IV needs two-sided bid and ask quotes at the strike nearest the last price. The 2 Nov, 20 Nov, 4 Dec and 18 Dec expiries had none at this snapshot, so no figure is shown for them.

Put wall, call wall and max pain

Where open interest and gamma exposure concentrate for the next two monthly expiries.

MSFT gamma and open-interest put walls, call walls and max pain by expiry
Expiry	Gamma put wall	Open-interest put wall	Gamma call wall	Open-interest call wall	Max pain
20 Nov 2026Monthly	Gamma put wall$4857.3% below spot	Open-interest put wall$5004.4% below spot	Gamma call wall$5352.3% above spot	Open-interest call wall$58010.9% above spot	Max pain$4808.2% below spot
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 days	Gamma put wall$4759.2% below spot	Open-interest put wall$4759.2% below spot	Gamma call wall$5759.9% above spot	Open-interest call wall$5759.9% above spot	Max pain$46511.1% below spot

For the 20 Nov expiry, gamma and open interest disagree on both walls: open interest places the put wall nearer to the last price than gamma does, and the call wall further from the last price than gamma does.

Next earnings date

Not available

No upcoming earnings date was available from the earnings calendar at the time of this snapshot.

MSFT contract terms

Exercise style: American style: the holder can exercise at any time up to expiry.
Settlement: Physical settlement: exercise and assignment deliver or take 100 shares per contract.
Last trading day: Trading ends at the close on the expiry date shown in each row. Monthly expiries fall on the third Friday, or the Thursday before when Friday is a market holiday.

Exercise vs assignment

How to read these numbers

Expected move: The at-the-money straddle price at midpoint prices: the size of move the market charges for in either direction, not a forecast.Breakevens and max loss
ATM implied volatility: Annualised volatility implied by at-the-money prices for one expiry; across expiries it forms the term structure.Implied volatility explained
IV rank and percentile: Rank places 30-day IV between its lowest and highest stored reading; percentile is the share of stored sessions at or below the current reading.
Gamma and open-interest walls: Gamma walls are the strikes with the most positive (call) and most negative (put) net gamma exposure; open-interest walls are the strikes with the most open calls and puts. A wall can sit on either side of the last price.Put wall vs max pain
Max pain: The strike where option holders would collect the least at expiry, given open interest. It does not predict the settlement price.Open interest vs volume

Model MSFT trades with these numbers

The Visualizer reprices MSFT live when you open it, then draws the expected move and probability range beside your payoff chart. The figures here are a snapshot from the time shown above, so they can differ slightly from the live screens.