Tesla · stock

TSLA options: expected move, IV and max pain

Tesla (TSLA) traded near $400.22 at the last snapshot. Option prices for the 20 Nov monthly expiry, which is 21 days away, imply a move of about $33.18 either way (8.29%), a range of $367.05 to $433.40.

Last price: $400.22
Expected move: ±$33.18; 8.29% · to 20 Nov
ATM IV: 43.2%; 20 Nov expiry
Data as of: 30 Oct 2026, 3:59 pm ET

Source: ThetaData

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What stands out in the TSLA data

30-day IV is 41.9%, the 21st percentile of the last 252 sessions, with an IV rank of 21.
The 20 Nov chain lists 164 strikes and 531,330 contracts of open interest.
Open interest is largest at the 18 Dec expiry, at 790,420 contracts.

Expected move by expiry

What the options market is pricing for TSLA at each of the expiries below.

TSLA expected move, ATM implied volatility and price range by expiry
Expiry	Time left	ATM IV	Expected move	Price range
2 Nov 2026Nearest	Time left3 days	ATM IV37.6%	Expected move±$9.48 (2.37%)	Price range$390.75 to $409.70
6 Nov 2026Weekly	Time left7 days	ATM IV46.7%	Expected move±$20.88 (5.22%)	Price range$379.35 to $421.10
20 Nov 2026Monthly	Time left21 days	ATM IV43.2%	Expected move±$33.18 (8.29%)	Price range$367.05 to $433.40
4 Dec 2026Closest to 30 days	Time left35 days	ATM IV41.3%	Expected move±$41.05 (10.26%)	Price range$359.17 to $441.27
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 days	Time left49 days	ATM IV41.6%	Expected move±$48.73 (12.17%)	Price range$351.50 to $448.95

Expected move is the price of the at-the-money straddle for the expiry, using midpoint prices (the average of bid and ask, or the last trade when a side has no quote). It is the same figure the Options Matrix shows. The range is the last price plus and minus that move.

The market prices 2.37% for the 2 Nov expiry and 12.17% for the 18 Dec expiry.

Implied volatility and term structure

How much volatility option prices carry, and how it changes from one expiry to the next.

Monthly ATM IV

43.2%

20 Nov 2026, 21 days

Nearest ATM IV

37.6%

2 Nov 2026, 3 days

Longest ATM IV

41.6%

18 Dec 2026, 49 days

30-day IV

41.9%

Stored reading, 30 Oct 2026

IV rank

0 is the low, 100 the high, over 252 sessions

IV percentile

21%

Share of the last 252 sessions at or below this reading

ATM implied volatility by expiry for TSLA. Points are evenly spaced rather than to time scale, and each point’s full reading appears above the chart when you hover or tap it.

Among expiries a week or more away, at-the-money IV runs from 46.7% at 6 Nov to 41.6% at 18 Dec. The curve slopes down: nearer expiries carry more annualised volatility than later ones.

Put wall, call wall and max pain

Where open interest and gamma exposure concentrate for the next two monthly expiries.

TSLA gamma and open-interest put walls, call walls and max pain by expiry
Expiry	Gamma put wall	Open-interest put wall	Gamma call wall	Open-interest call wall	Max pain
20 Nov 2026Monthly	Gamma put wall$3805.1% below spot	Open-interest put wall$25037.5% below spot	Gamma call wall$4000.1% below spot	Open-interest call wall$70074.9% above spot	Max pain$3756.3% below spot
The gamma call wall at $400 sits below the last price, so those calls are in the money.
18 Dec 2026Next monthlyClosest to 60 days	Gamma put wall$35012.5% below spot	Open-interest put wall$1097.5% below spot	Gamma call wall$45012.4% above spot	Open-interest call wall$990147.4% above spot	Max pain$36010.0% below spot

For the 20 Nov expiry, gamma and open interest disagree on both walls: open interest places both further from the last price than gamma does.

Next earnings date

27 Jan 2027

Tesla is listed to report during trading hours on 27 Jan 2027. The date comes from an earnings calendar and can change. It falls after the 20 Nov monthly expiry, so that expiry does not include it.

TSLA contract terms

Exercise style: American style: the holder can exercise at any time up to expiry.
Settlement: Physical settlement: exercise and assignment deliver or take 100 shares per contract.
Last trading day: Trading ends at the close on the expiry date shown in each row. Monthly expiries fall on the third Friday, or the Thursday before when Friday is a market holiday.

Exercise vs assignment

How to read these numbers

Expected move: The at-the-money straddle price at midpoint prices: the size of move the market charges for in either direction, not a forecast.Breakevens and max loss
ATM implied volatility: Annualised volatility implied by at-the-money prices for one expiry; across expiries it forms the term structure.Implied volatility explained
IV rank and percentile: Rank places 30-day IV between its lowest and highest stored reading; percentile is the share of stored sessions at or below the current reading.
Gamma and open-interest walls: Gamma walls are the strikes with the most positive (call) and most negative (put) net gamma exposure; open-interest walls are the strikes with the most open calls and puts. A wall can sit on either side of the last price.Put wall vs max pain
Max pain: The strike where option holders would collect the least at expiry, given open interest. It does not predict the settlement price.Open interest vs volume

Model TSLA trades with these numbers

The Visualizer reprices TSLA live when you open it, then draws the expected move and probability range beside your payoff chart. The figures here are a snapshot from the time shown above, so they can differ slightly from the live screens.

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Educational and informational only, not financial advice. Option figures are calculated from ThetaData quotes and open interest at the time shown. 30-day IV, IV rank and IV percentile come from stored daily readings, and earnings dates come from an earnings calendar. The figures describe what option prices imply, not what will happen. You make every trading decision. Options trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.